A Netflix deal for Warner means curtains for Crave unless Canadian regulators step in
For the good of the industry there’s no way that mergers like these should almost ever be approved, but let’s not waste one single second pretending that it wouldn’t be just a little bit fucking hilarious if Bell was undone by the very same monopolistic tendencies and spineless regulatory bodies that it’s been using to its advantage to ruin media and telecom in this country for decades.
Today, Netflix is the most subscribed streaming service in Canada, with about nine million subscribers. Crave, on the other hand, has 4.3 million subscribers. While it’s unknown how many customers subscribe to both services, many Canadians use Crave specifically to access HBO’s catalogue.
Should the DOJ review and approve the deal, the Competition Bureau must require Netflix to sell HBO assets to a Canadian buyer to preserve competition in the Canadian market. I say this because for Netflix to optimize the acquired content’s value, their best move is to offer it on their own platform. Subsequently, it’s likely that Netflix will either pay to void their contract with Bell Media or allow it to expire.
The impact on Crave will be mass migration to Netflix as content becomes consolidated and subscribers seek out cost savings. The scale of this exodus could be in the hundreds of thousands, putting Crave in a compromising position and jeopardizing its survival. This is particularly concerning because Bell Media expanded its long-term partnership agreement with WBD in 2024.
The deal would then leave Crave with a content gap that can’t meaningfully be filled through other partnerships or even Canadian television shows. This might sound dismissive of Canadian content, but what gives Crave its value proposition and market edge is HBO Max’s content. That content provides the company with direct access to the Canadian market without WBD having to build its own infrastructure and navigate government regulations. It’s a mutually beneficial relationship with Crave arguably gaining the most.
